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Autor Tema: La caída del dólar  (Leído 15602 veces)

Currobena

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Re:La caída del dólar
« Respuesta #90 en: Junio 01, 2012, 23:54:49 pm »
Currency Wars - James Rickards


Currency Wars (con subtítulos en inglés).
"Ni el interés ni el miedo, el rencor ni la afición, no les haga torcer del camino de la verdad, cuya madre es la historia, émula del tiempo, depósito de las acciones, testigo de lo pasado, ejemplo y aviso de lo presente, advertencia de lo porvenir".

Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra (1547-1616).

FoSz2

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Re:La caída del dólar
« Respuesta #91 en: Junio 11, 2012, 19:03:03 pm »
Debate acerca de "La caída del dólar" ;) en RT:

Small | Large
Sé que estás ahí, O'Brien.

EsquenotengoTDT

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Re:La caída del dólar
« Respuesta #92 en: Junio 12, 2012, 13:14:03 pm »

Impresionante artículo sobre el colapso. MUST READ.  Sorry, en anglo.

Fragility and Collapse: Slowly at first, then all at once

http://cluborlov.blogspot.com.es/2012/06/fragility-and-collapse-slowly-at-first.html



Pongo un extracto de la intro. Pero el artículo habla del dólar, de china, de energía... ¡Y cómo!

Citar
You see, predicting that something is going to happen is a lot easier than predicting when something will happen. Suppose you have an old bridge: the concrete is cracked, chunks of it are missing with rusty rebar showing through. An inspector declares it “structurally deficient.” This bridge is definitely going to collapse at some point, but on what date? That is something that nobody can tell you. If you push for an answer, you might hear something like this: If it doesn’t collapse within a year, then it might stay up for another two. And if it stays up that long, then it might stay up for another decade. But if it stays up for an entire decade, then it will probably collapse within a year or two of that, because, given its rate of deterioration, at that point it will be entirely unclear what is holding it up.


China, dólares y cortinas de humo:
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Recently there was a flurry of activity around China: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner, each with a large retinue, went to China on a high-level visit, during which the news coverage in the US was dominated by reports about a blind Chinese activist who was kept under house arrest, from which he escaped to the US embassy, and was eventually allowed to leave the country and come to the US. Hardly anyone in China knows who this person is, and the Chinese official reaction to demands that he be released were, pretty much, “Okey-dokey.” (The fact that Hillary seems to have given up on wearing makeup was considered newsworthy as well.)

Why such a powerful smokescreen? What were they hiding? Well, a couple of items of interest. First, it turns out that China can now monetize US debt directly. That’s right, the ability to print US currency is now distributed between the US and China. There is a special private line between Beijing and the US Treasury, and China can buy US Treasuries without going through any market mechanisms or making the price public. Secondly, China can now directly buy US banks. Back in the good old days attempts by foreign powers to use US Treasuries to buy equity in enterprises in the US was considered as akin to an act of war; nowadays—not so much. Basically, Hillary and Timmy went to China and said: “Take our financial system, please!” What they got is the financial equivalent of a subcutaneous morphine pump: something they give to terminal cancer patients, for continuous pain control. But what if it runs dry before the patient expires? That would be painful, wouldn’t it?


Colapso político
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As long as campaign funds are flowing into their coffers, and as long as none of their banker friends ever goes to jail, they will remain unconcerned about finance. What they are increasingly paranoid about is their own physical safety. Both parties have repeatedly exhibited an unseemly amount of bipartisanship when it came to passing legislation to compromise civil liberties, to increase social controls and surveillance, and to take away their citizens’ rights. The 2013 national security budget promises to top $1 trillion. Again, the parallel with pre- and post-collapse USSR is striking: the political system there too was unreformable, hollowed out, and used for personal advantage, as a private service to the wealthy and the powerful. Criminals, such as Boris Berezovsky, ran for public office simply in order to gain the immunity from prosecution that came with it. This pattern continues to this day, especially in Ukraine: lose an election—go to jail. Get reelected—and you can use the voters who didn’t vote for you for target practice. Once a political system collapses, everyone strenuously denies that it has, but then it tends to stay collapsed for a long time.


Comercio internacional...

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Things get bigger and bigger, then suddenly stop. Let us look at the example of US retail. Once upon a time there was local industry, which sold products through small shops. Over the course of a few decades, the industry moved to other countries, mostly to China, and the small shops were put out of business by department stores, then by malls, culminating with Walmart, which practices “slash and burn retail”: since most of what it sells is imported, it empties the local economy of money, and is then forced to close, leaving devastation in its wake. Walmart is now expanding in China, having finally realized that it doesn’t work to sell stuff in a country that doesn’t make stuff once that country is fresh out of money. In places where retail has ceased to exist, the remaining recourse is Internet shopping, thanks to UPS and FedEx. And once UPS and FedEx services become unaffordable because of rising energy prices or unavailable because of unmaintained, impassable roads and bridges, local access to imported goods is lost.


y así, con transportes, comunicaciones, sistema alimentario, sanitario...

No os lo perdáis. (Sólo para pieles gruesas, por eso no lo pongo aún en mi facebook. No así, no ahora)
Si no pica, no cura.

Karunel

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Re:La caída del dólar
« Respuesta #93 en: Junio 15, 2012, 11:17:09 am »
Muy bueno. Un planteamiento lógico, con una conclusión lógica. Inaceptable para el ciudadano medio, por tanto.  :roto2:

Me ha hecho gracia lo del disidente chino. Menos mal que vivimos en el mundo libre y aquí no se manipula ni nada de eso.  :biggrin:


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